Daily Run Size & Passage Prediction
Chinook Fall Chinook Adult
Adult Passage Counts at Bonneville Dam thru 13 Nov 2012
The daily Adult Chinook Total Run Size predictions at Bonneville Dam are produced by the Escapement Projector. These predictions are derived from current observed adult passage data (courtesy of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, NWD) and historic run timing using an optimal pattern matching routine. The daily total run size prediction (blue asterisks) exhibits random variability during the season, but converges to the actual run size as the percent passage converges to 100% of the run. The blue line depicts the observed cumulative passage up to the current day of data and the red line depicts the shape of the cumulative distribution predicted for the remaining days of the season. For more information on the forecast methods, see the Methods web page. The Preseason Total Run Size prediction is produced by NOAA Fisheries, see Forecast of Adult Returns for coho and Chinook Salmon NOAA Fisheries for more details.