SACPAS: Central Valley Prediction and Assessment of Salmon

Fish Model Background

Egg-to-Fry Modeling

Migration and Survival Modeling

Diagrams & Maps

Methods, Notes & References

SacPAS Fish Model v 3.1

Sacramento River Chinook salmon

Egg-to-Fry Modeling

Basic: simple selection of historical year for river temperature and redd data inputs
Intermediate: additional options for temperature, salmon runs, and survival model; Egg-to-Fry model outputs can be inputs to Migration and Survival modeling
Full: all input options available

Migration and Survival Modeling

Basic: simple input console with river flow and fish release; the rest has default model configurations
Full: all model configurations expanded in the online interface

Background
The SacPAS Fish Model includes Egg-to-Fry Modeling and Migration and Survival Modeling. It offers a web interface to multiple, interconnected models for Sacramento River Chinook salmon (see diagram). Predictions of salmon responses (hindcasts and hypothetical scenarios) are possible with the use of historical data, real-time data, and user-specified data (e.g., alternative scenarios). Egg-to-Fry Modeling is the first tool under the SacPAS Fish Model. The online tool includes various temperature-dependent mortality models, egg-to-emergence timing models, density-dependent models, and a redd dewatering model. Migration and Survival Modeling is the second tool under the SacPAS Fish Model. This online tool includes several models that can include input data from the Egg-to-Fry Modeling tool, historical data, and user-specified data.

Notably, one of the primary stressors on Winter-Run Chinook Salmon in the Sacramento River is thermal stress during incubation. River managers allocate cool water releases from Shasta Reservoir to reduce this stress, but at the cost of limiting water releases at other times of the year. In the study, Anderson et al. 2022, the authors modeled the effect of thermal stress on egg incubation and concluded that in drought years, targeting cold water to the period of peak embryo hatching yields the highest survival for a minimum use of water. The model, available through Egg-to-Fry Modeling, allows resource managers and the public equal access to evaluate water operation plans and in real-time track the status of the endangered salmon in the Central Valley of California.

For more details see the manual, which includes sections on the modeling, a user's guide, and example results and interpretations.

Maps & Diagrams

 • Interactive map

 • Diagrams

Methods, Notes & References

 • SacPAS Fish Model manual

 • Version Release History

 • Data

 • Notes

Maps & Diagrams

 • Interactive map

 • Diagrams

Methods, Notes & References

 • SacPAS Fish Model manual

 • Version Release History

 • Data

 • Notes

Citation

Columbia Basin Research, University of Washington. (2024). SacPAS Fish Model: Spawned egg to emerged fry, and juvenile migration and survival to the Delta. Available from www.cbr.washington.edu/sacramento/fishmodel.