Inseason Forecasts Post Season Analysis and Other Publications

Interactive Post Season Analysis

Beginning in 2018, post season analysis for COMPASS-based juvenile forecasts has moved from a static report to an interactive web page. At the end of the migration season, forecasts and observations are presented and compared when possible. Various details and visualizations are available, and previous years can be examined as well.

Postseason Analysis of the realtime forecasting of juvenile travel time and survival using COMPASS
Postseason Analysis of Spring and Fall Adult Chinook migrations

Post Season Analysis

Townsend RL, Westhagen P, Yasuda D. Evaluation of the 1994 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook in the Snake River Basin. [Internet]. 1995 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=35885-8

Townsend RL, Skalski JR, Yasuda D. Evaluation of the 1995 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Subyearling Fall Chinook in the Snake River Basin using Program RealTime. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin [Internet]. 1996 ;I. Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=35885-12

Townsend RL, Westhagen P, Yasuda D, Skalski JR, Ryding KE. Evaluation of the 1995 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook in the Snake River Basin using Program RealTime. [Internet]. 1996 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=35885-9

Townsend RL, Skalski JR, Yasuda D. Evaluation of the 1996 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Spring/Summer Yearling Chinook in the Snake River Basin using Program RealTime. [Internet]. 1997 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=91572-1

Townsend RL, Skalski JR, Yasuda D. Evaluation of the 1996 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Subyearling Chinook in the Snake River Basin using Program RealTime. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin [Internet]. 1997 ;II. Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=91572-2

Hayes JA, Zabel RW, Shaw P, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 1996 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook at Multiple Locations in the Snake and Columbia River Basins using CRiSP/RealTime. [Internet]. 1996 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=P104650

Townsend RL, Skalski JR, Yasuda D. Evaluation of the 1997 predictions of run-timing of wild migrant yearling and subyearling chinook and sockeye in the Snake River Basin using program RealTime. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin [Internet]. 1999 ;III. Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=91572-6

Burgess C, Townsend RL, Skalski JR. Evaluation of the 1998 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Yearling and Subyearling Chinook and Steelhead, and Hatchery Sockeye in the Snake River Basin using Program RealTime. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin [Internet]. 1999 ;IV. Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=91572-7

Beer WN, Hayes JA, Shaw P, Zabel RW, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 1998 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook and Water Quality at Multiple Locations on the Snake and Columbia Rivers using CRiSP/RealTime. [Internet]. 1999 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=02347-1

Burgess C, Skalski JR. Evaluation of the 1999 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Yearling and Subyearling Chinook Salmon & Steelhead Trout, & Hatchery Sockeye Salmon in the Snake River Basin using Program RealTime. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin [Internet]. 2000 ;V. Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=91572-4

Beer WN, Iltis S, Van Holmes C, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 1999 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook and Water Quality at Multiple Locations on the Snake and Columbia Rivers using CRiSP/RealTime. [Internet]. 2000 . Available from: sites/default/files/papers/PO.99.pdf

Burgess C, Skalski JR. Evaluation of the 2000 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Chinook Salmon & Steelhead Trout, & Hatchery Sockeye Salmon in the Snake River Basin, & Combined Wild & Hatchery Salmonids migrating to Rock Island & McNary Dams Using Program RealTime. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin [Internet]. 2001 ;VI. Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=91572-5

Beer WN, Iltis S, Van Holmes C, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2000 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook and Water Quality at Multiple Locations on the Snake and Columbia Rivers using CRiSP/RealTime. [Internet]. 2001 . Available from: sites/default/files/papers/PO.2000.pdf

Burgess C, Skalski JR. Evaluation of the 2001 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild and Hatchery-Reared Migrant Salmon and Steelhead Trout migrating to Lower Granite, Rock Island, McNary, and John Day Dams using Program RealTime. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin [Internet]. 2001 ;IX. Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=00004134-1

Beer WN, Iltis S, Van Holmes C, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2001 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook and Water Quality at Multiple Locations on the Snake and Columbia Rivers using CRiSP/RealTime. [Internet]. 2002 . Available from: sites/default/files/papers/PO.2001.pdf

Burgess C, Skalski JR. Evaluation of the 2002 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild and Hatchery-Reared Salmon and Steelhead Smolt to Lower Granite, Rock Island, McNary, and John Day Dams using Program RealTime. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin [Internet]. 2002 ;X. Available from: sites/default/files/papers/Skalski/ser2vol10FINAL.pdf

Beer WN, Iltis S, Van Holmes C, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2002 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook and Water Quality at Multiple Locations on the Snake and Columbia Rivers using CRiSP/RealTime. [Internet]. 2003 . Available from: sites/default/files/papers/PO.2002.pdfv

Beer WN, Salinger DH, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2003 Predictions of Run-size and Passage Distributions of Adult Chinook Salmon returning to the Columbia and Snake Rivers. [Internet]. 2004 . Available from: sites/default/files/papers/PO.Adult.2003.pdf

Burgess C, Skalski JR. Evaluation of the 2003 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild and Hatchery-Reared Migrant Salmon and Steelhead Trout migrating to Lower Granite, Rock Island, McNary, and John Day Dams using Program RealTime. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin [Internet]. 2003 ;XI. Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=00004134-6

Beer WN, Iltis S, Van Holmes C, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2003 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook, Subyearling Chinook and Steelhead and Water Quality at Multiple Locations on the Snake and Columbia Rivers using CRiSP/RealTime. [Internet]. 2004 . Available from: sites/default/files/papers/PO.2003.pdf

Beer WN, Salinger DH, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2004 Predictions of Run-size and Passage Distributions of Adult Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) returning to the Columbia and Snake Rivers. [Internet]. 2006 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=00020638-2

Griswold J, Townsend RL, Skalski JR. Evaluation of the 2004 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild and Hatchery-Reared Migrant Salmon and Steelhead Trout migrating to Lower Granite, Rock Island, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams using Program RealTime. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin [Internet]. 2005 ;XII. Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=00013690-4

Beer WN, Iltis S, Van Holmes C, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2004 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook, Subyearling Chinook and Steelhead and Water Quality at Multiple Locations on the Snake and Columbia Rivers using CRiSP/RealTime. [Internet]. 2006 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=00005396-2

Beer WN, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2005 Predictions of Run-size and Passage Distributions of Adult Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) returning to the Columbia and Snake Rivers. [Internet]. 2006 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=00025162-3

Griswold J, Townsend RL, Skalski JR. Evaluation of the 2005 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild and Hatchery-Reared Migrant Salmon and Steelhead Trout migrating to Lower Granite, Rock Island, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams using Program RealTime. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin [Internet]. 2006 ;XIII. Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=00013690-5

Beer WN, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2005 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook, Subyearling Chinook and Steelhead and Water Quality at Multiple Locations on the Snake and Columbia Rivers using CRiSP/RealTime. [Internet]. 2006 . Available from: sites/default/files/papers/PO.2005.pdf

Beer WN, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2006 Predictions of Run-size and Passage Distributions of Adult Chinook Salmon [Oncorhynchus tschawytscha] Returning to the Columbia and Snake Rivers. [Internet]. 2007 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=P102789

Townsend RL, Westhagen P, Skalski JR. Evaluation of the 2006 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild and Hatchery-Reared Salmon and Steelhead Smolt at Rock Island, Lower Granite, McNary, John Day and Bonneville Dams using Program Real Time. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin [Internet]. 2007 ;XIV. Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=00025093-2

Beer WN, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2007 Predictions of Run-Timing and Survival of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook and Steelhead on the Columbia and Snake Rivers. [Internet]. 2008 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=P107213<

Beer WN, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2008 Predictions of Run-size and Passage Distributions of Adult Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) Returning to the Columbia and Snake Rivers. [Internet]. 2009 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=P111391

Beer WN, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2008 Predictions of Run-Timing and Survival of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook and Steelhead on the Columbia and Snake Rivers. [Internet]. 2009 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=P109799

Townsend RL, Westhagen P, Skalski JR. Evaluation of the 2008 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild and Hatchery-Reared Salmon and Steelhead Smolts to Rock Island, Lower Granite, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams using Program RealTime. [Internet]. 2008 . Available from: sites/default/files/papers/Skalski/M&E Volume XVII (2008 RealTime Report).pdf

Beer WN, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2009 Predictions of Run-size and Passage Distributions of Adult Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) Returning to the Columbia and Snake Rivers. [Internet]. 2010 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=P116012

Beer WN, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2009 Predictions of Run-Timing and Survival of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook and Steelhead on the Columbia and Snake Rivers. [Internet]. 2010 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=P116013

Townsend RL, Westhagen P, Skalski JR. Evaluation of the 2009 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild and Hatchery-Reared Migrant Salmon and Steelhead Smolts to Rock Island, Lower Granite, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams using Program RealTime. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin [Internet]. 2010 ;XIX. Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=P115115

Beer WN, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2010 Predictions of Run-size and Passage Distributions of Adult Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) Returning to the Columbia and Snake Rivers. [Internet]. 2011 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=P121108

Beer WN, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2010 Predictions of Run-Timing and Survival of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook and Steelhead on the Columbia and Snake Rivers. [Internet]. 2011 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=P121107

Townsend RL, Westhagen P, Skalski JR. Evaluation of the 2010 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild and Hatchery-Reared Salmon and Steelhead Smolts to Rock Island, Lower Granite, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams using Program RealTime. [Internet]. 2011 . Available from: sites/default/files/papers/Skalski/M&E Volume XX (2010 RealTime Report).pdf

Beer WN, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2011 Predictions of Run-size and Passage Distributions of Adult Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) Returning to the Columbia and Snake Rivers. [Internet]. 2012 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=P127362

Beer WN, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2011 Predictions of Run-Timing and Survival of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook and Steelhead on the Columbia and Snake Rivers. [Internet]. 2012 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=P126069

Townsend RL, Westhagen P, Skalski JR. Evaluation of the 2011 Predictions of the Run-Timing of Wild and Hatchery-Reared Salmon and Steelhead Smolts to Rock Island, Lower Granite, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams using Program RealTime. [Internet]. 2011 . Available from: sites/default/files/papers/Skalski/M&E Volume XXI (2011 RealTime Report).pdf

Beer WN, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2012 Predictions of Run-size and Passage Distributions of Adult Chinook Salmon [Oncorhynchus tschawytscha] Returning to the Columbia and Snake Rivers. [Internet]. 2013 . Available from: https://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/DocumentViewer.aspx?doc=P132681

Beer WN, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2012 Predictions of Run-Timing and Survival of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook and Steelhead on the Columbia and Snake Rivers. [Internet]. 2013 . Available from: https://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/DocumentViewer.aspx?doc=P132683

Beer WN, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2013 Predictions of Run-size and Passage Distributions of Adult Chinook Salmon [Oncorhynchus tschawytscha] Returning to the Columbia and Snake Rivers. [Internet]. 2014 . Available from: https://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/DocumentViewer.aspx?doc=P137743

Beer WN, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2013 Predictions of Run-Timing and Survival of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook and Steelhead on the Columbia and Snake Rivers. [Internet]. 2014 . Available from: https://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/DocumentViewer.aspx?doc=P137742

Beer WN, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2014 Predictions of Run-size and Passage Distributions of Adult Chinook Salmon [Oncorhynchus tshawytscha] Returning to the Columbia and Snake Rivers. [Internet]. 2015 . Available from: https://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=P148589

Beer WN, Iltis S, Anderson JJ. Evaluation of the 2014 Predictions of Run-Timing and Survival of Wild Migrant Yearling Chinook and Steelhead on the Columbia and Snake Rivers. [Internet]. 2015 . Available from: https://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=P148588

Beer WN, Anderson JJ. Predicting and Monitoring Adult Spring Chinook Salmon Migration on the Columbia River in 2009. [Internet]. 2010 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=P116033

Beer WN, Anderson JJ. Predicting and Monitoring Adult Spring Chinook Salmon Migration on the Columbia River in 2010. [Internet]. 2011 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=P121106

Beer WN, Anderson JJ. Predicting and Monitoring Adult Spring Chinook Salmon Migration on the Columbia River in 2011. [Internet]. 2011 . Available from: http://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=P126070

Beer WN, Anderson JJ. Predicting and monitoring adult spring Chinook salmon migration on the Columbia River in 2012. [Internet]. 2013 . Available from: https://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/DocumentViewer.aspx?doc=P132731

Beer WN, Anderson JJ. Predicting and monitoring adult spring Chinook salmon migration on the Columbia River in 2013. [Internet]. 2014 . Available from: https://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/DocumentViewer.aspx?doc=P137744

Beer WN, Anderson JJ. Predicting and monitoring adult spring Chinook salmon migration on the Columbia River in 2014. [Internet]. 2015 . Available from: https://pisces.bpa.gov/release/documents/documentviewer.aspx?doc=P148590

Adult Peak, Adult Upstream Model and Escapement Forecaster

Adult Upstream Model overview

Anderson JJ, Beer WN. Oceanic, riverine, and genetic influences on spring chinook salmon migration timing. Ecological Applications [Internet]. 2009;19:1989-2003. Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/08-0477.1

Beer WN. Run timing of adult Chinook salmon passing Bonneville dam on the Columbia River. [Internet]. 2007. Available from: /sites/default/files/papers/chinook.run.timing.2007.pdf

Beer WN. Stock Separation of Chinook salmon at Bonneville Dam for Adult Upstream Migration Model (2008). [Internet]. 2008. Available from: /sites/default/files/papers/StockSeparationforAUM2008.pdf

Juvenile Passage Models

2007 - Present

COMPASS Comprehensive Passage Model

Zabel RW, Faulkner J, Smith SG, Anderson JJ, Van Holmes C, Beer WN, Iltis S, Krinke J, Fredicks G, Bellerud B. Comprehensive Passage (COMPASS) Model: a model of downstream migration and survival of juvenile salmonids through a hydropower system. Hydrobiologia [Internet]. 2008;609:289-300. Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10750-008-9407-z

1996 - 2006

Columbia River Salmon Passage Model

Anderson JJ, Beer WN, Frever T, Hayes JA, Iltis S, Moore MP, Salinger DH, Shaw P, Holmes CV, Zabel RW. Columbia River Salmon Passage Model CRiSP.1.6 Theory and Calibration. [Internet]. 2000. Available from: /sites/default/files/manuals/crisp16_tc.pdf

RealTime Forecasters

Total Dissolved Gas

TDG modeling used by the juvenile passage models can be found in the CRiSP1.6 Theory & Calibration Manual.

Shaw P. Gas Saturation and Sensitivity Analysis Using CRiSP. [Internet]. 1997. Available from: /sites/default/files/papers/shawpath.pdf

Beer WN. Total Dissolved Gas submodel parameter calibration for use with CRiSP. [Internet]. 2003. Available from: /sites/default/files/papers/gascalibration2003.2.pdf

Gas Generation Equations Development for CRiSP from April 1998