PFMC Abundance, Harvest, and Impact Rates
| Year a/ | 3-Year Geometric Mean b/ | Abundance Forecast c/ | Postseason Abundance d/ | Postseason Abundance Value Footnote | Age-3 impact rate south of Point Arena, CA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum Allowable (%) e/ | Preseason Forecast (%) | Postseason Estimate (%) | Postseason Estimate Value Footnote | |||||
| 2000 | 21.4 | |||||||
| 2001 | 8508 | 23.3 | ||||||
| 2002 | 9092 | 21.8 | ||||||
| 2003 | 5976 | 10.3 | ||||||
| 2004 | 18090 | 24.8 | ||||||
| 2005 | 18907 | 17.2 | ||||||
| 2006 | 2619 | 15.1 | ||||||
| 2007 | 2954 | 17.8 | ||||||
| 2008 | 4152 | 0.0 | ||||||
| 2009 | 1439 | 0.0 | ||||||
| 2010 | 696 | e/ | ||||||
| 2011 | 3263 | 28.3 | ||||||
| 2012 | 1797 | 5960 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 12.6 | |||
| 2013 | 1521 | 3067 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 18.8 | |||
| 2014 | 2380 | 3718 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.8 | |||
| 2015 | 3659 | 867 | 19.0 | 17.5 | e/ | |||
| 2016 | 3981 | 508 | 19.9 | 12.8 | 10.7 | |||
| 2017 | 2521 | 2117 | 15.8 | 12.2 | 17.6 | |||
| 2018 | 1594 | 8139 | 14.4 | 8.5 | 13.9 | |||
| 2019 | 1924 | 6935 | 15.7 | 14.8 | 10.0 | |||
| 2020 | 3077 | 10854 | 20.0 | 16.2 | 12.6 | |||
| 2021 | 9063 | 6346 | 20.0 | 14.7 | 18.8 | |||
| 2022 | 5971 | 3071 | 20.0 | 15.2 | 26.2 | g/ | ||
| 2023 | 4540 | f/ | 20.0 | 0.0 | h/ | |||
| 2024 | 1081 | f/ | 12.3 | |||||
- Table II-2 Footnotes
- a/ Year indicates the management year in which age-3 SRWC are exposed to ocean fisheries.
- b/ Allowable impact rates from 2012-2017 were determined by an abundance-based control rule, where abundance was defined as the most recent three-year geometric mean of escapement.
- c/ Since 2018 the abundance forecast has been defined as the predicted age-3 escapement in the absence of fisheries.
- d/ Postseason estimates of the age-3 escapement in the absence of fisheries.
- e/ Beginning in 2018, allowable impact rates were determined by a new control rule utilizing forecasts of the age-3 escapement in the absence of fisheries.
- f/ Insufficient data for postseason estimate.
- g/ Preliminary. Incomplete cohort data (age-4 escapement unavailable).
- h/ Not estimated. Incomplete cohort data (age-3 and age-4 escapement unavailable).
PFMC (Pacific Fishery Management Council). 2024a. Preseason Report I: Stock Abundance Analysis and Environmental Assessment Part 1 for 2024 Ocean Salmon Fishery Regulations. (Document prepared for the Council and its advisory entities.) Pacific Fishery Management Council, 7700 NE Ambassador Place, Suite 101, Portland, Oregon 97220-1384.
Available from: https://www.pcouncil.org/salmon-management-documents/
Additional Information on Table II-2 (PFMC 2024a)
The age-3 ocean impact rate estimate is derived from coded-wire tag data available for hatchery-origin fish only.
The "Year" indexing is based on the fishing year of most relevance. For example, the 2021 forecast is the forecast that drove fishing opportunity for 2021 fishing (particularly fishing from April 2021 through November 2021) affecting the cohort that will return as age-3 in around February of 2022. Thus, the forecast reported for "Year" 2021 is the forecast of potential age-3 escapement in 2022, and the escapement that is reported for "Year" 2021 is the total escapement estimated for 2022. See escapement estimates in Table B-3 of PFMC Amended Review of YYYY Ocean Salmon Fisheries.
In the past, the 3-year geometric mean escapement were used to determine the allowable age-3 impact rate, but since 2018, depend on a forecast (see below).
The forecast is for potential age-3 escapement in the absence of fishing; whereas the reported escapement is after fishing. The reported escapement includes jacks and adults older than age-3, though these are typically a minor contributor to the total.
Direct quote from PFMC 2024a.
2.1.2 Sacramento River Winter Chinook
ESA-listed endangered Sacramento River winter Chinook salmon (SRWC) are harvested incidentally in ocean fisheries, primarily off the central California coast. A two-part consultation standard for endangered SRWC was first implemented in 2012, and later updated in 2018.
The first component of the consultation standard is the season and size limit provisions that have been in place since the 2004 Biological Opinion. These provisions state that the recreational salmon fishery between Point Arena and Pigeon Point shall open no earlier than the first Saturday in April and close no later than the second Sunday in November. The recreational salmon fishery between Pigeon Point and the U.S.-Mexico Border shall open no earlier than the first Saturday in April and close no later than the first Sunday in October. The minimum size limit shall be at least 20 inches total length. The commercial salmon fishery between Point Arena and the U.S.-Mexico border shall open no earlier than May 1 and close no later than September 30, with the exception of an October fishery conducted Monday through Friday between Point Reyes and Point San Pedro, which shall end no later than October 15. The minimum size limit shall be at least 26 inches total length.
The second component of the consultation standard is specified by a control rule that limits the maximum age-3 impact rate (allowable as a preseason forecast) for the area south of Point Arena, California (Appendix A, Figure A-3). The control rule specifies the maximum allowable age-3 impact rate on the basis of a forecast of the SRWC age-3 escapement in the absence of fisheries.
Predictor Description
From 2018-2023 the forecast of the age-3 escapement absent fishing (abundance) was made using a stochastic SRWC life cycle model that is stratified by age, sex, and origin (hatchery and natural). Beginning in 2024, the forecast of SRWC age-3 escapement absent fishing was made using a Gaussian process model, which is a form of nonparametric regression. The model relates covariates directly to postseason estimates of the SRWC age-3 escapement absent fishing. This approach was reviewed at the 2023 Salmon Methodology Review and documentation of the approach can be found in the reports prepared for the Methodology Review, including: https://www.pcouncil.org/documents/2023/10/2023-salmon-methodology-review-material.pdf/ and https://www.pcouncil.org/documents/2023/10/d-3-supplemental-attachment-3-final-additional-material-requested-at-the-2023-salmon-methodology-review-meeting.pdf/. In November 2023, the Council adopted the Gaussian process model referred to as GP-1. The GP-1 model forecasts the age-3 escapement absent fishing using two predictors: the number of parental female spawners in the river (natural and hatchery origin) and a river temperature covariate (degree days above 12°C from May 15-October 31 at Clear Creek Gage). Predictors were for the brood year three years prior to the return year to be forecasted.
Predictor Performance
Forecasts of the SRWC age-3 escapement absent fishing, and postseason-estimated values, can be found in Table II-2.
Stock Forecast and Status
The forecast of SRWC age-3 escapement absent fishing is 1,081. Application of the control rule results in a maximum age-3 impact rate of 12.3 percent for the area south of Point Arena in 2024 (Table II-2).